So, Global Warming?

In my old age, I have become skeptical about almost everything. Carbs are good, carb are bad; sun is good, sun is bad; rubber is good; rubber is bad; organic is good, organic is bad; short hair is good, grey hair is bad. So, now, I’m not sure about the hoopala regarding the current global warming panic. I remember when scientists, back in the ’70’s, presented "clear and compelling evidence" that at the rate people were replicating the world would soon be overpopulated and we would all starve within 10 years unless we brought population under control. The world could not generate enough food to keep the population of earth alive. All the bobble heads in the country agreed and couples had only two children. Two children were good, three children were bad. Three children would mean that one of them would starve. No longer did we see the ubiquitous Maytag ad showing a happy couple surrounded by their 17 children while the Maytag machine worked overtime.  In 1900 the world population was 1,600,000,000. In 1975 the world population was 4,079,087,198. Dire predictions ensued. Mormons (with their seven or eight children) were hoarding enormous numbers of canned food in their shelters. In 2015 the world population was 7,383,008,820. Today, not only is the world’s population not starving, but obesity appears to be the planet’s biggest problem, not to mention all the “begetting” that people must be enjoying in order to procreate. So much for the “clear and compelling” evidence proving world starvation was imminent.

Then came the ’80’s, and scientists presented “clear and compelling evidence” that pollution was going to keep the sun’s rays from warming the earth. We would all freeze to death in the coming ice age unless drastic measures were taken immediately. Huge sacrifices were made; we stopped using aerosol hairspray. Instead, time passed and we learned the same pollution wasn’t causing the sun’s rays from coming through the smog, although it was making for more beautiful sunsets; what it was doing though, said the same scientists’ “clear and compelling evidence”, was heating the planet, not cooling it. The bobble heads nodded in agreement. Entire manufacturing industries in this country folded to cleanse the air. And which countries are the most air polluted? Bangladesh, Pakistan and India. Their combined populations are about 1.6 billion. And what are they doing about it? Zip.  China is ranked 12th at 1.4 billion. China has a much greater land mass than India but likewise, is not doing anything about their pollution, as evidenced by the number of sales of blue face masks, while the US and Canada are ranked 65th and 66th respectively. Perhaps because those polluting manufacturing entities relocated to those other countries that have the worst pollution in the world. Not in my back yard, where the air is sweet, but in your back yard. 

Al Gore said the ice caps would melt within five years; that was over 10 years ago, so I’m somewhat jaundiced about all these recent grim  predictions. Gore’s dire warnings meant that all our seaside homes would be underwater. Tucson would become a waterfront  community, I guess. Yet, I recall, back in junior high science classes, learning about mass. Mass came in three forms: solid, liquid or gas. When water froze, it expanded (something about hydrogen molecules). Our class project was to fill a glass with ice water until it reached the brim. No more, no less. I was to let the glass of ice water sit overnight. Sure enough, in the morning, the ice had melted and the water level had dropped an inch. So if the ice caps melt, won’t the water levels drop since frozen water takes up more space. 

By 2K, I was older and, perhaps not wiser, but more cynical about following the latest experts’ “clear and compelling” evidence. Heck, just to play devil’s advocate, if the earth was warming, wouldn’t that mean that countries above the tundra line would become arable. We could live in parts of the world that currently are unlivable, like Siberia, the Netherlands or the Northwest Territories. 

Then again (here’s the scientific part of this rant), speaking of clear and compelling evidence, a friend recently sent me an article from a science magazine about the Milankovitch Cycles. Apparently the world’s axis shifts a few degrees each millennium and that is what is causing the current warming trend; not anything that humanity is doing or not doing. Simply put, these cycles are caused by changes in the earth's orbit around the sun, like its orbital shape, its wavy wobble and the tilt of its axis. Each of these has a different effect on how much of the sun's energy reaches the earth and when the strongest sunlight occurs. These effects usually occur in cycles, and primarily include how Earth's obliquity, the eccentricity of Earth's orbit, and the precession of the equinoxes and solstices affect Earth's climate. The article was very long, technical and scientific; anyone with the fortitude to do so is welcome to research it further. It did make a lot more sense than Denmark or Alaska switching to solar energy since they only gets six months of sunlight. 

Since, or if, the Milankovitch Cycle is the explanation for global warming, all we can do is buy suntan lotion with a higher SPF rating and move to Canada. Personally, I am calmed by the notion that in ten years I will more than likely be dead. I let Bobby McFerrin’s tune “don’t worry; be happy” loop around in my brain all day while I enjoy the glorious sunsets reflecting on the water’s edge of my property. Peace and love to scientists everywhere.